How Vehicle Theft Rates Affect Car Insurance Prices

Vehicle theft affects car insurance prices mainly through comprehensive coverage, the part of a policy that pays for losses such as theft. When thefts of a certain model or in a certain area rise, insurers pay out more in claims there. Those higher costs can show up in how that coverage is priced for similar vehicles and locations.

Theft is not the only input, and no single data point sets a price. Each insurer builds its own rating plan, and the details differ by company and state. This article explains how theft trends and a vehicle's theft history can feed into pricing, using data from the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) and the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI), which is funded by auto insurers.

Theft has been falling after a surge. The NICB reported that vehicle thefts in 2025 fell 23% from 2024 ¹. A total of 659,880 vehicles were reported stolen nationwide ¹. That followed a 17% drop in 2024 ¹.

A lower national count does not mean every area or model has improved. The NICB also said one vehicle is still stolen every 48 seconds ¹. It added that more than one-third of all vehicle thefts occurred in the top 10 metropolitan areas ¹. The Los Angeles area had the most, with 53,911 thefts in 2025 ¹.

Theft is concentrated by state as well. California had 136,988 reported thefts and Texas had 75,269 in 2025 ¹. For how location enters pricing more broadly, see Why Car Insurance Costs More in Some Cities Than Others and Does Your ZIP Code Change Your Car Insurance Price?.

HLDI explains that theft claims under comprehensive coverage can come from theft of vehicle contents, theft of parts, or theft of the entire vehicle ³. Whole-vehicle theft is the costliest type. HLDI found that for 2022 to 2024 model year vehicles, the average loss payment per whole vehicle theft was $53,217 ³.

Those claims are rare for any single vehicle. HLDI measured a combined whole-vehicle theft claim frequency of 0.45 claims per 1,000 insured vehicle years for those models ³. Spread across all insured vehicles, that works out to an average loss of $24 per insured vehicle year ³. This is a loss figure paid out by insurers, not a price anyone is charged.

Insurers look at claim history by make and model, so a model that is stolen often can carry higher comprehensive costs than one that is rarely stolen. HLDI's data shows how wide the gap can be. Among 2022 to 2024 models, the Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 two-door had a whole vehicle theft claim frequency nearly 40 times the average ³. At the other end, the Tesla Model 3 had a frequency of just 1% of the average ³.

HLDI adjusted those results for factors such as garaging state, vehicle density, deductible and driver age, gender and marital status ³. The aim was to isolate what the vehicle itself contributes. Because of that, the figures speak to the vehicle's theft risk, not to any one driver's circumstances.

The NICB's most-stolen list for 2025 was led by the Hyundai Elantra with 21,732 thefts, followed by the Honda Accord with 17,797 and the Hyundai Sonata with 17,687 ¹. The Chevrolet Silverado 1500 had 16,764 and the Honda Civic had 12,725 ¹. These are raw counts. Popular models are stolen more often in part because there are more of them on the road.

The Hyundai and Kia surge shows how a theft trend can move through claims data. HLDI reported that theft claim frequency for Hyundai and Kia vehicles has risen much faster than for other manufacturers since 2021 ². In the first half of 2023, theft claim frequency for 2003 to 2023 Hyundai and Kia models was more than 10 times higher than in the first half of 2020 ². It was also nearly 7 times higher than for other makes ².

Do those multiples reflect how many Hyundai and Kia vehicles are on the road? In part, the measure already accounts for it. HLDI defines claim frequency as the number of claims for a group of vehicles divided by the exposure for that group, expressed as claims per 1,000 insured vehicle years ². Exposure is the length of time a vehicle is insured under a given coverage type ². Because the figure is a rate per insured vehicle year, a larger number of insured Hyundai and Kia vehicles does not by itself raise it. HLDI measured the Hyundai and Kia rate at 11.2 claims per 1,000 insured vehicle years in the first half of 2023 ². The bulletin does not report Hyundai and Kia market share or sales growth, and it does not say how those figures would change the comparison, so this article makes no claim about them ².

HLDI pointed to missing standard equipment. Passive immobilizers were standard on only 26 percent of 2015 Hyundai and Kia series, compared with 96 percent for all other makers combined ². It also said social media videos that showed how to steal the cars helped fuel the thefts ².

The effect was not limited to the targeted models. HLDI found that when Hyundai and Kia vehicles were included, the all-vehicle theft claim frequency rose 43 percent ². Vandalism claims also rose, because failed break-in attempts often leave damage ².

Several theft-related factors can interact with each other:

• Where the car is kept. Metro areas with heavy theft can have higher comprehensive costs than low-theft areas.
• The make, model and year. Theft claim history by model can inform how an insurer rates that vehicle.
• Anti-theft equipment. A missing immobilizer was tied to higher theft frequency in HLDI's Hyundai and Kia analysis ². Ask an insurer which equipment it considers.
• The deductible and coverage choice. Theft is paid only if the policy carries comprehensive coverage. See Minimum Coverage Versus Full Coverage: Why the Price Gap Moves.

A falling national theft count does not guarantee that any specific price will fall. Insurers weigh theft alongside repair costs, weather losses and other claims. Rate changes come through filings with state regulators, which What Is a Car Insurance Rate Filing, and Why Does It Change My Bill? explains. For questions about a specific policy, contact the insurer or your state insurance department.

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• ¹ Reported: NICB's 2025 national theft total and year-over-year changes, state and metro counts, and the most-stolen model counts. NICB is a not-for-profit insurance crime organization, not a regulator.
• ² Reported: HLDI findings on Hyundai and Kia theft claim frequency, immobilizer rates and the all-vehicle theft frequency increase, through mid-2023. It also supports HLDI's definition of claim frequency per 1,000 insured vehicle years and the 11.2 figure for the first half of 2023.
• ³ Reported: HLDI whole-vehicle theft frequency, severity and loss per insured vehicle year for 2022 to 2024 models, and the Camaro ZL1 and Tesla Model 3 comparisons.