When Will Car Insurance Rates Go Down? What the Data Shows

Some measures of car insurance prices are already falling, but the sources do not point to one date when rates drop for everyone. The federal price index for motor vehicle insurance was down 5.1% from August 2025 to August 2026 ¹. At the same time, state records show filings moving in different directions, depending on the state and the insurer. We report what the sources show here and do not predict.

That is why the honest answer to "when will car insurance rates go down" is "it depends on where you live, which company insures you and when your policy renews." Insurers file their own rate changes, and regulators review them state by state. A national average can fall while a particular filing goes up.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks a motor vehicle insurance index inside the Consumer Price Index. In its August 2026 release, that index changed -5.1% over the 12 months ending in August ¹. On a seasonally adjusted basis it changed -2.0% from May to June, -0.3% from June to July and -0.8% from July to August ¹.

This index measures price changes across the country. It does not describe what any one household pays. It also does not tell you what the next release will show.

Repair costs point the other way. In the same release, the index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair was up 5.2% over the 12 months ¹. Insurers weigh claim costs when they decide on rate changes. Our guide to how repair costs push car insurance prices up explains the link.

Florida's Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) published figures in March 2026 on the state's five largest auto insurance groups. It reported that those groups were indicating an average rate change of -8% for 2026 ². The release says those groups account for 78% of Florida's auto market ². It also describes the 2025 figure as a requested total rate change of -7.4% for the same group of insurers ².

Note the wording. These are "indicated" and "requested" changes reported by the regulator, which is different from a bill you receive. The release also names insurer-specific actions. It says OIR approved USAA lowering rates by 7%, taking effect by May 2026, and that Allstate decreased rates by 7% for over 171,000 drivers ². It also says more than 700,000 GEICO customers would see rate relief taking effect in April 2026 ². Percentages like these are averages for existing policyholders, so an individual policy can differ.

The release credits the state's legislative reforms for the trend. It also notes Florida's personal auto liability loss ratio was 52.5% in 2025 ². We are reporting the regulator's description. We are not judging it. For how Florida sets rates, see our Florida page.

On October 8, 2026, the Texas Department of Insurance said home and auto rates were trending down for many Texans. According to ABC13's report on that release, companies filed auto rate decreases affecting 4.4 million policyholders ³. The same report says a TDI spokesperson told reporters that auto insurers on average filed for a 0.6% increase in the last 90 days ³.

Reporters also counted filings. Since July 1, there were 25 auto filings with increases and 15 with decreases, though about half the increases came from one company that files separately for many small programs ³. Two Allstate companies filed increases of 6.9% and 5.5% for renewing policies starting October 15, while State Farm filed a 0.5% auto rate decrease effective November 25 ³. The report does not give the legal names of the filing entities for these auto filings, so we have not listed them.

TDI also said that, for auto, average rates rose less than 1% in 2025, with similar trends in 2026 ³. Learn more on our Texas page.

Three things shape when a change reaches a driver:

• The state. Each state's insurance department has its own review process, and the Florida and Texas figures above come from different regulators.
• The insurer. Companies file separately, and even within one state some filings rise while others fall ³.
• Your renewal date. A filed change usually applies to policies as they renew or start, which is why the Texas report lists different effective dates ³.

To see how a filing becomes a line on your bill, read what a rate filing is. Your own renewal notice also shows what changed. See how to read your car insurance renewal notice.

Averages describe groups of policies and are not a forecast for yours. For questions about a filing, contact your insurer or your state insurance department. If you want to see current prices, you can Compare quotes. Quotes are estimates and are not binding, and we cannot say what you would pay.

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• ¹ Official record: the 5.1% 12-month change, the monthly changes in the motor vehicle insurance index and the 5.2% repair index change.
• ² Official record: Florida OIR's -8% indicated and -7.4% requested rate changes, the 78% market share, the USAA, Allstate and GEICO figures and the 52.5% loss ratio.
• ³ Reported: Texas filing counts, the 4.4 million policyholders figure, the 0.6% average filed change, the Allstate and State Farm filings and the TDI statements as relayed by ABC13.